I've been creating this new idea for a curve that you can reference as the "Pascalian Risk Curve". It has up to six interesting inflection points and tries to plot a chart between preparation/planning/tuning and risk/reward/danger.
Start with the horizontal X-axis representing increasing "Planning". Now raise the vertical Y-axis representing increasing "Risk". The resulting plot lines with these constraints will usually give you a parabola shape. That is, with little planning, your risk of failure is high. With too much planning and tuning, your risk actually increases even more due to over planning and too much "futzing". Here is a default curve with some label points:
^
|\ /
R| \ /
| \ /
i| \ /
| \ /
s| \ /
| \__/
k|
|
+-------------------->
Planning
1 2 3 4 5 6
1: Fools go where angels dare to tread
2: Keep It Simple Stupid
3: Practice makes perfect
4: A stich in time saves nine
5: Don't fix it if it ain't broke
6: Stop fucking with it moron
Some procedures and processes never get rid of the risk; no amount of planning and tuning can get rid of it. Take space flight:
^
|
R| | i| ---------------
|
s|
|
k|
|
+-------------------->
Planning
1 2 3 4 5 6
1: Let's see how high we can launch ourselves
2: It's OK, I have a prachute
3: It's OK, we set the failsafe
4: Let's see if this monkey survives
5: Who cares about a little bit of foam?
6: Houston, we have a problem
Some processes are actually tuned to be easy because all the work is done for you. Too much messing with it is very very bad:
^
|
R| /
| /
i| /
| /
s| /
| /
k| /
|---/
+-------------------->
Tuning
1 2 3 4 5 6
1: I can check the tire pressure myself
2: I think I can change the oil myself
3: What's that noise?
4: What's this hose?
5: I can chip my Honda and get 5 more HP
6: I think I can remove the alternator
Or, for Microsoft Windows with the same curve as above:
1: Hey, the mouse moves
2: I can start MS Word
3: What does this button do?
4: I donwloaded a helper
5: I don't need these files
6: I'm going to clean up some unused registry entries