Betting

Betting on an outcome is a very instructive way to figure out the future. For example, will you be in a car accident tomorrow? No way. Want to wager on it? Hmmm. What if it is going to rain tomorrow? What if tomorrow is a Friday and you'll be driving late at night past a lot of bars just past closing time? What if you are not going to drive 20 miles to work, but instead you will stay home and make a quick trip to the grocery store?

All of these factors could weigh into a decision on how much you would be willing to wager and what kind of spread you will take on it. I often take bets on office events and project milestones. "I'll bet you 2 to 1 for a dollar we don't finish the project this year," "So and so won't last a year, he'll be fired or quit. Wanna bet?" Etc. I keep the betting money in my desk drawer, with neat notations on the bet and whose bet it was etc.

So today, I had this awkward exchange with one of the guys who works for me:

Me: Um, do you recall we made a bet?
Employee: Vaguely.
Me: It was 2 to 1 for a nickel. I put up 10 cents, you put up a nickel.
Employee: It doesn't sound familiar.
Me: Well, it has your name on it and the bet, see here? I don't have the parameters or the date.
Employee: It was probably the ***** project.
Me: Ah, yes. [smiling] How long ago was that?
Employee: Uh... It was... Yeah... Um...
Me: So you would say that I won the bet, yes? [smiling]
Employee: As usual, you asshole.
Me: So we're square, I'm going to take your five cents.
Employee: Ok.
Me: Would you like to make another bet, perhaps? Double-or-nothing?
Employee: I'm not really comfortable with that. Maybe later.

A finely tuned mind can make quite good bets on the future, especially if there is a monetary tie-in like a small wager.